Potash mining, at 18% of demand today, is the fastest-growing segment, forecast to reach 22% by 2035, driven by greenfield projects in Saskatchewan and Ethiopia
Decision Focus
IndexBox’s 2026–2035 forecast for the global continuous miners market points to a 3.2% CAGR through 2035, with the market index reaching 135 by 2035 (baseline 2025=100). The headline number matters less than what sits beneath it: demand is rotating away from coal toward potash, salt, and hard-rock metal applications, and OEMs are responding by making automation, remote operation, and electric drivetrains the default configuration on new orders. For Mining Operations Directors running underground development programs or evaluating fleet refresh cycles, the signal is clear — procurement decisions made in the next 12–24 months will be made against a different technology baseline than those made five years ago.
90-Second Brief
Now, the continuous miners market enters 2026 shaped by two distinct demand currents. Coal mining holds a 55% demand share but faces structural headwinds, with its share projected to compress to approximately 48% by 2035 as operators modernize rather than expand fleets. Potash mining, at 18% of demand today, is the fastest-growing segment, forecast to reach 22% by 2035, driven by greenfield projects in Saskatchewan and Ethiopia. Across both sectors, automation and electric drivetrains have moved from premium options to standard inclusions in new machine orders, with ventilation cost reduction and safety compliance as the primary operational rationale.
What Is Really Happening?
The deeper pattern is a market being pulled in two directions simultaneously, and OEMs are structuring their product roadmaps around that tension. In coal, the driver is replacement, not growth. Underground coal mines in Australia and the United States are running aging fleets that face safety and productivity standards older machines cannot meet without upgrades. Demand is real, but it is finite and bounded by coal policy trajectories in OECD markets. Europe’s coal phase-out is already compressing that demand curve; replacement demand in Germany and Poland is limited, with remaining investment directed at automation and safety compliance in mines still operating.
The potash story is structurally different. Room-and-pillar extraction in soft-rock potash deposits is precisely matched to continuous miner technology, and several large-scale projects are moving toward production in Saskatchewan and Ethiopia over the forecast horizon. Fertilizer demand anchored to population growth and biofuel expansion is less exposed to energy policy cycles than coal, making these projects a more durable procurement signal for OEMs building out service and parts networks.
Electric drivetrains are central to both stories, but for different reasons. In coal, electrification reduces ventilation requirements and diesel emissions underground — a meaningful operating cost lever where ventilation accounts for a significant share of mine energy spend. In potash, electric continuous miners address ESG commitments and reduce long-run energy costs in mines where ore body geometry allows consistent machine positioning. Komatsu, Caterpillar, Sandvik, and Epiroc are integrating automation and remote operation as standard features rather than optional upgrades, raising the specification floor on replacement purchases across the board.
Why It Matters for Mining Operations Directors
The bifurcation matters most when capital planning cycles run across a sector boundary. Directors overseeing underground coal development programs are making fleet decisions against a market where automation is becoming the new baseline — not an enhancement. Procuring a non-automated machine today means entering a replacement cycle in five to eight years against a market where the aftermarket parts and service ecosystem has fully shifted toward connected, electric configurations. That is a maintenance and availability risk embedded in today’s procurement choice.
For operations adjacent to or considering potash or hard-rock narrow-vein development, the relevant signal is that the OEM supply chain is deepening its capability in those segments. Sandvik and Epiroc are both identified as key participants in hard-rock-specific continuous miner development, and the forecast shows hard-rock metal mining growing from 10% to 12% of demand by 2035 as room-and-pillar applications expand in narrow-vein gold and copper deposits. Directors trialing continuous miners for development headings should expect more capable hard-rock configurations to reach the market during this forecast window — affecting both the technology choice and the business case timeline.
Steel price volatility and hydraulic component availability remain active constraints on lead times and pricing. The source explicitly identifies supply chain disruptions as a market restraint, and operators in remote jurisdictions face amplified exposure when delivery windows stretch. That is a procurement scheduling consideration now, not a future risk.
Forward View
Three fronts are worth tracking through 2026 and into 2027. First, the pace of greenfield potash project approvals in Saskatchewan and Ethiopia will determine whether the 18%-to-22% demand share shift materializes on forecast or runs ahead of it. If multiple large-scale projects reach construction decisions simultaneously, OEM order books and lead times will tighten faster than the baseline scenario assumes.
Second, the rate at which Australia and North America mandate or incentivize electric underground equipment will directly affect replacement cycle timing in coal. Regulatory pull — not just technology push — could compress the window between current fleet vintage and mandated electrification, forcing earlier replacement decisions than capital plans currently reflect.
Third, Chinese and Indian regional OEMs are gaining share in lower-specification segments. For operations where the specification requirement is modest and cost-per-unit is the primary criterion, that competitive pressure may widen procurement options. Service network depth in remote jurisdictions, however, remains the decisive variable that global OEMs currently hold.
What Is Still Uncertain
The IndexBox forecast is a market intelligence estimate, not a capital expenditure survey of confirmed orders. The 3.2% CAGR projection is a baseline scenario dependent on moderate global economic growth and stable-to-declining coal demand in OECD markets — both of which carry meaningful scenario risk. If coal demand in India and China expands faster than the baseline assumes, coal share compression may not materialize and total market growth could exceed the index. Conversely, accelerated coal phase-out in Asia would erode the replacement demand floor and create downside pressure on total unit volume.
The potash growth projection carries its own dependency: execution timelines for greenfield mines in Ethiopia and Laos are subject to infrastructure, permitting, and political risk that market forecasts typically underweight. Confirmed project timelines from major potash developers would sharpen this read considerably.
The source does not address specific productivity or cost-per-tonne data from operations that have deployed automated continuous miners at scale. That gap matters operationally — the business case for a premium automated machine requires demonstrated performance data from comparable sites, not OEM specifications alone.
One Question for Your Team
If your underground fleet refresh decision falls within the next 24 months, have you mapped the total cost differential — including ventilation savings, parts availability, and resale value — between a conventional diesel configuration and an electric-drive automated unit across your specific mine geometry and roster model?
Sources
- Indexbox — Continuous Miners Market Growth Outlook to 2035 Amid Automation and Potash Demand (Link)
