Most mineral and metal prices are expected to rise modestly in 2026, Fitch Solutions’ BMI research unit says, driven by easing trade-tariff uncertainty and accelerating demand from industries linked to the net-zero transition.
BMI’s newly released year-end outlook, compiled in December and circulated to clients this week, sketches a cautiously optimistic picture for miners, manufacturers and investors worldwide. While China’s struggling property sector is likely to keep a lid on some industrial metals, BMI analysts believe that growing appetite for copper, aluminum, lithium and other “transition” minerals will help lift average prices above 2025 levels, echoing assessments published by Mining.com on 8 January 2026 and Geomechanics.io two days earlier.
The report arrives at a delicate moment: commodity markets are searching for direction after a volatile three-year stretch marked by pandemic disruptions, rapid interest-rate shifts and heightened geopolitical tensions. BMI’s base-case scenario suggests 2026 could be the year the sector regains firmer footing, provided that governments, producers and end-users navigate lingering supply-chain risks without reigniting a tariff war.
Turning point on trade
BMI attributes a large share of the expected price stabilization to an anticipated “general reduction” in trade frictions. According to the outlook summarised by Mining.com, tariff uncertainties peaked in August 2025 and have since begun to subside as major economies seek to normalise commercial ties. Analysts do not foresee a sudden dismantling of all barriers, but they argue that the absence of new, broad-based duties should calm markets and encourage deferred purchasing.
That dynamic matters particularly for base metals such as copper and aluminum, which suffered from volatile pricing when exporters diverted cargoes around tariff roadblocks in 2024–25. A potential flashpoint remains the U.S. Commerce Department’s scheduled review of domestic copper markets by 30 June 2026. Officials are weighing universal duties of 15 percent starting in 2027 and 30 percent from 2028—moves that BMI warns could reignite volatility if adopted. For now, the assumption is that Washington will opt for a narrower remedy or delay implementation, giving buyers confidence to lock in supply contracts.
China’s property chill vs. green-tech heat
The biggest demand-side uncertainty remains China’s real-estate slump. Residential construction accounts for roughly a quarter of the nation’s copper consumption, and BMI concedes that weakness in that sector will “continue to pressure prices,” as noted by Geomechanics.io. Yet the same forecast argues that renewable-energy installations, electric-vehicle (EV) production and grid upgrades—both inside China and globally—should more than offset the drag.
Copper illustrates the dynamic. Global EV sales, up 35 percent in 2025, are projected by BMI to climb a further 20 percent in 2026, feeding demand for copper wiring and battery connectors. Solar and wind developers are meanwhile securing aluminum and zinc for frames and galvanised tower parts, while battery makers pursue lithium, nickel and cobalt. Overall, BMI expects “transition” minerals to outperform the broader complex, keeping headline metals indices in positive territory despite patchier traditional industrial activity.
Currency, rates and the bullion barometer
Price evolution for precious metals, particularly gold, will hinge more on macro-financial variables than physical supply. BMI envisions the U.S. dollar index trading in a 95-to-100 range next year, slightly stronger than in the second half of 2025 as the Federal Reserve pauses its rate-cut cycle. A firmer greenback tends to cap dollar-denominated commodity rallies, yet gold’s status as a safe-haven asset could still support a year-on-year average price increase before easing late in 2026 when monetary policy visibility improves.
Silver, which straddles the industrial and precious categories, may benefit from photovoltaic demand but could also feel the weight of dollar strength. Platinum-group metals appear set for mixed performance: automotive catalysts remain under pressure from the steady shift to EVs, though emerging hydrogen-economy applications offer a medium-term lifeline.
Investment surge and deal-making
One of the most bullish signals in BMI’s report is the outlook for mergers and acquisitions. Robust deal momentum among miners and downstream manufacturers is expected to continue, with transactions skewed toward copper, lithium and rare earths—materials at the heart of battery technology and clean-energy infrastructure. That view is echoed in coverage by ScrapMonster, which cites “cautious optimism” that investment dollars will keep flowing despite macro uncertainty.
The research firm points to a parallel trend of resource-rich governments, particularly in Africa and Latin America, leveraging newfound bargaining power. Having watched commodity booms come and go, policymakers in countries such as Zambia and Argentina are drafting stricter local-content rules and demanding refinery construction or technology transfer in exchange for mining permits. For super-majors and junior explorers alike, the message is clear: strategic partnerships and value-adding projects are no longer optional extras but prerequisites for resource access.
Supply-chain alliances and technology pull
Beyond traditional M&A, BMI anticipates deeper cross-sector collaboration aimed at de-risking supply chains for advanced technologies. Automakers are already signing multi-year offtake agreements for battery metals; aerospace firms are exploring joint ventures to secure titanium and nickel for next-generation jet engines; and semiconductor producers are eyeing long-term contracts for specialty silicon and gallium arsenide. Such initiatives are designed to head off potential bottlenecks that could constrain growth in artificial intelligence, defense and robotics.
Risk assessment: tilted to the downside
Despite an overall positive tone, BMI’s risk matrix keeps the needle modestly in the red. Key threats include:
• A sharper-than-expected downturn in China, which could spill over into regional suppliers and crater base-metal demand.
• Resurgence of tariff disputes, especially if U.S. or EU policymakers deploy new trade-remedy tools targeting critical minerals.
• Financing constraints for capital-intensive mining projects should global credit conditions tighten.
• Environmental or social flashpoints, from water-rights battles in Latin American lithium brine fields to local opposition against new copper pits in Africa.
The report notes that “industrial policy has become the frontline instrument for ensuring resource security,” raising the likelihood of state intervention that might distort markets or reroute supply flows with little warning.
What it means for stakeholders
For miners: The base-case scenario supports a measured ramp-up in output, especially for copper, aluminum and battery metals. Project pipelines must build in contingency plans for political or logistical shocks.
For manufacturers: Locking in multi-year supply agreements could hedge against price creep without over-committing capital, given the expectation of gradual appreciation rather than a commodity super-cycle.
For investors: Commodity-linked equities and exchange-traded funds may regain favour after a choppy 2025, though selection remains critical. Companies with exposure to transition minerals and transparent ESG strategies are likely to command valuation premiums.
For policymakers: The global push toward net-zero is accelerating the scramble for critical minerals. Governments that craft balanced frameworks—simultaneously attracting investment, securing domestic supply and ensuring local benefit—will be better positioned to ride the coming up-cycle.
Looking ahead
BMI’s 2026 forecast does not promise a blockbuster bull run. Instead, it points to a more orderly market in which incremental price gains are underpinned by structural shifts toward cleaner energy and smarter technology. Such a landscape still demands agility. Producers must keep a close eye on Beijing’s stimulus levers, Washington’s trade docket and the evolving calculus of energy transition economics. But after several years of upheaval, a period of steady, demand-led growth would be a welcome respite—and, if the projections hold, a lucrative one.
Sources
- https://www.mining.com/most-mineral-and-metal-prices-to-edge-higher-in-2026-fitch-forecasts/
- https://www.geomechanics.io/news/article/fitch-2026-mineral-and-metal-price-outlook-planning-notes-for-mine-projects
- https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/copper/bmi-forecasts-higher-mineral-metal-prices-in-2026-2026-1-6/98159
